Robinhood + Susquehanna buy LedgerX: when the casino puts on a suit and tie

Larisa - LoQueArde
Jan 8
4 min read

Robinhood and Susquehanna agreed to acquire 90% of LedgerX, a U.S.-regulated exchange, to push prediction markets “the proper way”: with futures, derivatives, and clearing. Meanwhile, ICE edged into Polymarket with a ticket of up to $2B, and Kalshi showed up with valuations from another planet. If this sounds like jargon, good — that’s the sound of big machinery powering up.

What they agreed on (and why it matters more than it looks)

According to Reuters, Robinhood and Susquehanna agreed to acquire 90% of LedgerX, a U.S.-regulated platform (formerly associated with FTX and later ending up under MIAX).

The deal would leave MIAX with 10%, and the plan is to use LedgerX as the foundation to aggressively push regulated prediction markets. Reuters

Translation for those already in the know: they’re not “adding a feature”. They’re buying a regulatory bridge plus a toolbox that already comes with licenses, rails, and operational track record.

The key piece isn’t “prediction markets.” It’s the combo: exchange + clearing

Reuters says it without drama, but the point is heavy: Robinhood and Susquehanna plan to launch a futures/derivatives exchange and a clearinghouse via a joint venture, with the transaction expected to close (if everything goes as planned) in Q1 2026 and operations starting the same year. Reuters

For anyone who understands market structure:Exchange = where trading happens.Clearing = where trades are netted, guaranteed, margined — where things get “serious.”

When someone starts talking about clearing, they’re talking scale and an adult license. It’s moving from “I’m betting yes/no” to “I’m building infrastructure so this becomes a big, defensible, regulator-proof line of business”.

Why Robinhood + Susquehanna is a dangerously logical marriage

Robinhood brings massive retail distribution (users, interface, onboarding, habit).

Susquehanna brings what almost nobody says out loud but everyone needs: liquidity, pricing, market making, microstructure — the “engine” that keeps a market from turning into a swamp. Reuters

LedgerX provides the shortcut: operating inside a regulated framework instead of playing hide-and-seek.

The result isn’t “just another app. ”It’s an attempt to build a full stack for event contracts / prediction markets that looks like a mass-market product — with institutional-grade plumbing underneath.

The context: it’s no longer a crypto oddity. It’s an incumbents’ race

In the same Reuters discussion, it appears that ICE (yes—the NYSE parent, big-league players) invested up to $2B in Polymarket. Reuters Kalshi also shows up, with a reported $11B valuation and raising $1B in a funding round — a whole different league. Reuters

For anyone already following this space, that’s the signal: incumbents aren’t watching from the stands.They’re stepping onto the field with cleats and cash.

And on top of that, the regulatory push is getting unstuck thanks to court decisions and reshuffles — which Reuters points to as a catalyst for the boom. Reuters

Reality and the meme have started speaking the same language: probabilities

Here’s where two worlds that seem incompatible end up crossing — they’re connecting underneath the surface.

On the timeline you’ve got the show: “Trump called Maduro,” “a $200M rumor,” “630,000 BTC hidden away” — that lives in the territory of gossip, delirium, and meme (and that’s it: I’m not selling it as courtroom-grade proof). In the boring world, you’ve got something else: Robinhood + Susquehanna buying regulated infrastructure and setting up clearing so people can trade “yes/no” like contracts.

What connects them isn’t the rumor: it’s the format. Reality is turning into binary questions with a price tag — and when that happens, the meme stops being “just a joke.” It becomes the trailer for what later gets institutionalized.

If you want it even more “visual meme,” add one last line:

The timeline writes fanfiction Wall Street buys the printing press

Non-technical translation of a technical mess (told in mate language)

Didn’t understand a damn thing? Relax. Me neither. That’s why GPT translated it into human language

Basically: Robinhood is the giant kiosk where people buy financial stuff from their phone.

Susquehanna is the guy behind the kiosk moving boxes, setting prices, and making sure nothing runs out of stock.

And LedgerX is like buying the business license, the venue, and the cash register all at once — so you can open a “legal” casino where, instead of betting on red 7, you bet on:

“Does X happen?

YES

and that Yes/No has a price, it goes up, it goes down, and it fills up with people shouting

The spicy part is that they didn’t stop at “let’s build an app. ”They’re building the part nobody sees: the mechanical workshop that keeps the casino from catching fire when too many people walk in (clearing).

And while you’re seeing Maduro with a sign that says “630,000 BTC” like it’s a carnival meme, the financial system is saying:

“Okay. The ‘probabilities’ format sells.

Let’s do it with suits, licenses, and fees”

No, Lo Que Arde isn’t the CIA. It’s that neighbor who hears a door slam at 3 a.m. and is already opening the peephole: 'Something happened here. I don’t know what yet. But tomorrow there’s trouble'.

When the serious world writes: 'innovation in derivatives markets',

Lo Que Arde writes: 'TRUMP CALLED MADURO AND THE BITCOIN IS IN HIS POCKET' (show mode, obviously).

And here’s the interesting part: sometimes the show doesn’t 'explain' things better… but it circulates better.

I share it, you remember it, characters get built, and I leave you an emotional clue before the polished press release comes out.

It’s not 'prediction'. It’s the smell of gunpowder: the internet working as a cheap, fast, slightly degenerate sensor… just before the PDF version drops.

I don’t guess: I exaggerate on time. 🤩

There’s one idea that sticks with me: when Robinhood, Susquehanna, ICE, Polymarket, and Kalshi show up on the same map, it’s not because they 'discovered a hobby'.

It’s because attention has already turned into a market.

And now the market wants to charge a toll for every single thing the world debates.

Today it’s 'Does X win?'

Tomorrow it’s 'Does Y fall?'

The day after, it’s 'Does Z blow up?'

And that’s when the meme stops being a joke

and becomes structure